Lebanon ceasefire

The United States and France announced Tuesday that a ceasefire agreement had been reached between Israel and Lebanon, as of early Wednesday morning 27th November.

Some Israelis have started to return to their homes near the Israel/Lebanon border; but there is still much uncertainty about how secure the region will be, and how long the ceasefire will last.

In fact already in the first hours Israel fired on Hezbollah operatives who were believed to be threatening in the south.

The ceasefire comes as Israel has essentially wiped out Hezbollah’s leaders and killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters, and destroyed their strongholds in southern Lebanon. This has been a massive blow to Hezbollah’s master, the revolutionary regime in Tehran, which in turn appears to be more willing to negotiate with the West on its nuclear program.

It is reported that Israel was pressured into the deal by the Biden Administration, that threatened to restrict arms supplies to Israel – and possibly even impose a UN Security Council arms embargo – in the absence of a ceasefire.

Nevertheless the Israeli government believes the benefits outweigh the costs. It is betting that the ceasefire will enable the IDF to regroup and hoping that an end to fighting in Gaza will place more pressure on Hamas in Gaza to agree to a deal involving the release of the hostages. Around 100 hostages remain in the tunnels in Gaza, it is not known how many are alive.

The ‘Cessation of Hostilities’ document sets out ‘commitments’ made by Israel and Lebanon intended ‘to enable civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to return safely to their lands and homes’.

“The ceasefire comes as Israel has essentially wiped out Hezbollah’s leaders and killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters, and destroyed their strongholds in southern Lebanon.”

Essentially, the agreement provides that the Lebanese army and security forces will take over control of the south of Lebanon, and will ensure that Hezbollah will not be re-armed or undertake any hostile activities towards Israel.

Hezbollah is not party to this agreement. In fact it is not even mentioned by name in the agreement. And yet it is Hezbollah that is the problem. The success of the agreement thus depends on whether Lebanon is able to keep Hezbollah under control.

Clause 2 provides: “From 04:00 hours (IST/EET), November 27, 2024 forward, the Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel, and Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, or other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air, or sea.”

Israel retains its right at any time to exercise its “inherent right of self-defense, consistent with international law”. What that means in practice of course remains to be seen, and already there are differences of opinion between the Israeli leadership and outgoing Biden Administration.

Apparently there is also a side letter in which the USA commits to “providing Israel with intelligence information pertaining to violations of the terms of the ceasefire deal, and in particular, regarding any indication that Hezbollah is attempting to infiltrate the ranks of the Lebanese Army.”

The letter also reportedly stresses the US’s commitment to working with Israel to prevent Iran from destabilizing the region, from establishing itself in Lebanon, and from undermining the accord directly or via proxies.

ICC Arrest Warrants

The saga of the ICC arrest warrants against Israeli leaders Netanyahu and Gallant continues. Some countries have announced they will arrest them as required by the Court should they appear in their territory. Others have expressed legal and political concerns about the warrants. This week France announced that it is of the view that Netanyahu enjoys sovereign immunity, and therefore cannot be arrested.

In the meantime, Israel has formally appealed against the Court’s 2021 decision that it has jurisdiction over Israeli leaders.

Rally in Amsterdam 

On Thursday evening, thousands of Dutch citizens gathered at the Stopera in Amsterdam, waving Israeli and Dutch flags, to demonstrate solidarity with the Jewish community and speak out against the alarming surge in antisemitism in the Netherlands. The rally, organized by Christians for Israel and other pro-Israel organizations, was a powerful show of unity and resistance against hatred.

Photo: Christians for Israel

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